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Estimation of COVID-19 basic reproduction ratio in a large urban jail in the United States.

Identifieur interne : 000076 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000075; suivant : 000077

Estimation of COVID-19 basic reproduction ratio in a large urban jail in the United States.

Auteurs : Lisa B. Puglisi [États-Unis] ; Giovanni S P. Malloy [États-Unis] ; Tyler D. Harvey [États-Unis] ; Margaret L. Brandeau [États-Unis] ; Emily A. Wang [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32919033

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

PURPOSE

To estimate the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2 inside a correctional facility early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic transmission model for a large, urban jail in the United States. We used the next generation method to determine the basic reproduction ratio We included anonymized data of incarcerated individuals and correctional staff with confirmed COVID-19 infections in our estimation of the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2.

RESULTS

The estimated is 8.44 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 5.00-13.13) for the entire jail.

CONCLUSIONS

The high of SARS-CoV-2 in a large urban jail highlights the importance of including correctional facilities in public health strategies for COVID-19. In the absence of more aggressive mitigation strategies, correctional facilities will continue to contribute to community infections.


DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.09.002
PubMed: 32919033
PubMed Central: PMC7480336


Affiliations:


Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)


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<term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Humans (MeSH)</term>
<term>Jails (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandemics (prevention & control)</term>
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<term>Pandémies (prévention et contrôle)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle)</term>
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<term>Taux de reproduction de base (statistiques et données numériques)</term>
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<b>PURPOSE</b>
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<p>To estimate the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2 inside a correctional facility early in the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
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<b>METHODS</b>
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<p>We developed a dynamic transmission model for a large, urban jail in the United States. We used the next generation method to determine the basic reproduction ratio We included anonymized data of incarcerated individuals and correctional staff with confirmed COVID-19 infections in our estimation of the basic reproduction ratio () of SARS-CoV-2.</p>
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<b>RESULTS</b>
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<p>The estimated is 8.44 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 5.00-13.13) for the entire jail.</p>
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<b>CONCLUSIONS</b>
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<p>The high of SARS-CoV-2 in a large urban jail highlights the importance of including correctional facilities in public health strategies for COVID-19. In the absence of more aggressive mitigation strategies, correctional facilities will continue to contribute to community infections.</p>
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